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Live Cattle

Technicals (June-M)

It was a risk-off day into the weekend for many markets, and live cattle were not immune. The “worst case scenario” was avoided over the weekend and many markets are showing signs of relief, perhaps that can be the same for cattle to start the week too. Support remains intact from 169.00-170.00. This is a MUST HOLD pocket. A break and close below here could trigger another wave of long liquidation. On the resistance side of things, the Bulls want to get back out above 172.90-173.425 to spur a bigger relief rally. Friday’s 5-area average price for live steers was reported at 183.93, softer than recent weeks but still pretty darn good considering the pressure in the futures market.

Resistance: 175.70-176.40, 177.72-178.45

Pivot: 172.90-173.425

Support: 169.00-170.00***

Seasonal Tendencies (June Live Cattle)

Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Seasonally we start to see June futures soften up, but if you’ve been watching cattle at all over the last year you know that seasonals tendencies tend to have had a lower correlation this year.

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.

Commitment of Traders Snapshot

(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 8.3k contracts. This drops their net long position to 36,76. Historically, we would look at this as a fairly neutral position.

Read the full article here: Can Livestock Futures Stabilize? - Blue Line Futures

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